The Future of Ontario Electricity Prices – Trends to Watch
Updated 2026‑04‑22
Ontario electricity prices are shaped by long‑term demand forecasts, supply mix changes, infrastructure investments, and regulatory decisions. This guide summarizes the major trends that will influence electricity costs over the next decade, using publicly available data from the Ontario Energy Board (OEB) and the Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO).
1. Electricity demand in Ontario is projected to rise significantly
Ontario’s electricity demand is expected to grow sharply through 2050. The IESO’s planning forecast shows demand increasing by approximately 75% by 2050, driven by population growth, industrial expansion, and electrification of transportation and heating .
Higher demand generally increases long‑term system costs because the province must build or contract new generation, transmission, and storage capacity.
2. Market prices fluctuate, but long‑term supply costs remain the main driver
Ontario’s wholesale electricity price (the Ontario Zonal Price) fluctuates daily. For example, day‑ahead prices in April 2026 ranged from roughly $20/MWh to $90/MWh depending on the hour .
However, wholesale prices are only part of the picture. Most long‑term costs come from:
- long‑term generation contracts
- regulated nuclear and hydro assets
- transmission and distribution infrastructure
- system reliability programs
These costs are recovered through the Global Adjustment and delivery charges, which tend to rise gradually over time.
3. The Global Adjustment will continue to influence bills
The Global Adjustment (GA) reflects the difference between market prices and contracted/regulated supply costs. GA values vary month to month — for example, GA ranged from ‑48.53 to 143.70 $/MWh across late 2025 and early 2026 .
Because GA covers long‑term system costs, it is likely to remain a major component of Ontario electricity bills for years to come.
4. Regulated Price Plan (RPP) forecasts show steady upward pressure
The OEB’s Regulated Price Plan forecast for 2025–2026 estimates an average supply cost of 5.75¢/kWh for the market price portion and an additional 5.98¢/kWh from the Global Adjustment, for a combined supply cost of roughly 11.7¢/kWh before delivery and tax .
This suggests modest upward pressure on residential electricity prices over the medium term.
5. Electrification will reshape Ontario’s supply mix
As more vehicles, homes, and industries electrify, Ontario will need new sources of electricity. National studies show electricity demand across Canada rising significantly through 2050, with major growth in transportation, buildings, and industry .
Ontario’s future supply mix may include:
- new nuclear generation (including small modular reactors)
- expanded hydroelectric refurbishment
- new natural gas capacity for reliability
- more wind and solar generation
- grid‑scale storage
Each of these investments affects long‑term electricity prices.
6. Transmission and distribution upgrades will add long‑term costs
As demand grows, Ontario will require new transmission lines, substation upgrades, and local distribution improvements. These infrastructure projects are typically recovered through delivery charges, which vary by utility.
Rural utilities may see higher increases because they maintain more infrastructure per customer.
7. Pricing plans will continue to evolve
Ontario’s move toward Time‑of‑Use, Tiered, and Ultra‑Low Overnight pricing gives households more control over their bills. As electrification increases, especially EV adoption, pricing plans may evolve to encourage off‑peak charging and reduce strain on the grid.
Households that shift usage to overnight periods may see lower bills even if overall electricity prices rise.
8. What this means for Ontario households
Based on current forecasts and system trends, Ontario households should expect:
- gradual increases in electricity prices over the next decade
- higher demand from electrification and population growth
- more pricing options that reward off‑peak usage
- continued importance of the Global Adjustment
- infrastructure‑driven delivery charges that vary by utility
While prices may rise, households can still manage costs by choosing the right pricing plan, shifting usage to off‑peak hours, and improving home efficiency.